Dar es Salaam - Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will soon embark on projecting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates quarterly instead of yearly, and what remains is final comments from stakeholders scheduled mid this month. 

 

NBS has produced ‘real estimate’ reports since 2001 to the first quarter of 2009 and circulated to stakeholders for comments last August. The dissemination of the final series was expected last October (2009) before making the “figure a public good”.

 

The Quarterly estimates, normal, are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.GDP reports are broken down into three announcements: advance, preliminary, and final. After the final revision, GDP is not revised again until the annual benchmark revisions each July.

 

The NBS Director of Economic Statistics, Mr. Morrice Oyuke, told East African Business Week last week that data accumulated over the years has enabled the bureau to have over 100 models to calculate the GDP quarterly.

 

“The models helped to find the solution of measuring how well or how badly the economy is doing and tells us were we are going,” Mr Oyuke said, adding “we are ready and the (GDP) figure will not favour politicians.”

 

He said the bureau has managed to produce projections for medium-term micro economic model up to 2015 and is now working on long-term projection to 2020. The country uses Generalized Additive Models which can be used in virtually any setting where linear models are used blending with and applied CGE model—descended from the input-output models.

 

The models are based on production, goods and services and balance of payments data and analysis.

 

 GDP gives a general overview of the country's economic situation. It tends to give a more positive outlook, as it uses market prices to value goods and services.

 

The Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs, Mr. Mustafa Mkulo, said in his letter of intent to IMF that finalization of the rebasing of the consumer price index is expected before the end of 2009/10 fiscal year.

 

The health of the Tanzania economy is of tremendous significance not only to Tanzanians but to several other stakeholders in planning and preparing national budget.

Bank of Tanzania (BoT) Governor, Prof. Benno Ndulu, said GDP is regarded as the most comprehensive, accurate tool for assessing economic health and by measuring it by quarter would enable planners to plan accordingly.

“It is not a childs play to prepare GDP quarterly, it’s painstaking but helps to positively plan for the future,” Prof Ndulu said.

Confederation of Tanzania Industries Director of Policy and Research, Mr. Hussein Kamote, said quarterly reports “will help rectifying shortfalls of GDP contribution by sector in a timely manner” instead of waiting to do same after a year-lapse.  

The mid-January stakeholders’ meeting is scheduled to bring together, among others, economists and statisticians from Ministry of Finance, NBS, BoT and scholars to pave way of making public the quarterly reports.

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